On the surprise UK general election result

So the results are in and a surprise small Conservative majority appears to be the situation. An inquiry is being planned into why the result was so different to the pre-election opinion polls, and why no-one saw it coming. Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage have all stepped down as leaders of their respective parties. Russell Brand has admitted that maybe he didn't have all or indeed any of the answers. Here's a few thoughts on the implications of the result.

This was a proportional representation election carried out under a first past the post system. Or to put it another way, the electorate is hugely fragmented and every party is either over-represented or under-represented substantially. This means, as many people have pointed out, that the electoral system that Westminster has clung to is not fit for purpose. Held up by its supporters in the two main parties (who naturally have the most glaring vested interest in advancing their own party's cause) as providing clear majorities for the largest party, I'd argue that despite yesterday's result first past the post has now handed the UK two elections in a row without a workable long-term majority.

The argument is therefore even clearer than before in favour of meaningful electoral reform in the UK to bring in a system of proportional representation. (Even Nigel Farage says so). The risible 2011 referendum on Alternative Vote was never going to deliver proper reform, which is exactly why the Conservatives forced it on their hapless Liberal Democrat coalition partners. Here's what the 2015 election result would have looked like under PR, and what's striking from these projections is that not just some but all of the main parties are receiving representation that is substantially out of whack. This is grossly unfair to voters. Both the Conservatives and Labour are gifted more seats than their support merits, although this effect is far more pronounced for the Conservatives, who received 36.9 percent of the vote but garnered 50.9 percent of the seats in the Commons. The SNP are also substantially over-represented due to their sweeping of the Scottish electorates. Both UKIP and the Greens return only one member, which means that their combined voices of five million British voters are represented by a mere two MPs. It's like the rotten boroughs of old.

The Conservatives, against all predictions, gained seats in 2015 - but this doesn't mean they have a sweeping mandate for continued reform. Their share of the vote increased by half a point over their 2010 result to a total of 36.9 percent - but that is a long way from 50 percent. The hard right will want to use the next parliamentary term to press on with hard-line policies in case they are not returned to office in 2020 (assuming the Conservatives retain the support of a majority of the House for that long). But given the thinness of Conservative support across the UK it would be foolish to adopt a hard-right strategy.

In one sense, Rupert Murdoch was right. Despite being a cartoonishly evil meddling tycoon puppet-master of the far right, Murdoch's tweet that the nearly four million voters who cast their ballots for the anti-Europe, anti-immigration, thinly-veiled racism of UKIP need to be heeded is, sadly, correct. The party has a mere one MP (Douglas Carswell in Clacton) but if the UKIP vote is combined with that of the Conservatives that is an enormous right-of-centre voting bloc. (Some left-of-centre voters do cast their votes for Farage's UKIIP, however). Over the next few years the UK may see a situation akin to the 1993-96 term in New Zealand before the first MMP election, during which members elected under first past the post decided to jump ship to parties that were closer to their own reactionary political views. The pressure will be immense for far-right Conservative backbenchers to defect to UKIP and soak up the love from those four million largely unrepresented voters. The Conservative majority may not last.

With this in mind, David Cameron should consider the New Zealand approach to coalition-building and provide himself a little security by - against all predictions - retaining the coalition with the Lib Dems. The Conservatives might not need those eight extra votes now, but at some point in the next few years they are likely to. And gifting a minor portfolio to the Lib Dems (or, with a spot of wishful thinking, a referendum on proper proportional representation) would be an ideal insurance policy, allowing the public opposition to the Conservative government to be diluted into a broader anti-Coalition sentiment.

Labour, unsurprisingly, elected the wrong leader - and perhaps even the wrong Miliband. The party seems to have been in denial about what was needed to win a popular vote. The polls suggesting a dead heat between the Conservatives and Labour may not have been 'wrong'; as in New Zealand in 1993, there may have been a concerted shift in public opinion right at the last minute, as voters questioned whether they felt Ed Miliband could actually pull off the job of being Prime Minister. And the Crosby Textor approach of polling for weak spots (i.e. the supposed dangers of a Labour-SNP coalition) and then relentlessly targeting them seems to have worked a treat in the electorate battles that mattered.

The SNP now have an African National Congress-like vicehold grip on the Scottish seats at Westminster. The question remains is how it will respond to the challenge of almost unfettered authority for the voices of Scottish voters in a Westminster system dominated by an English Conservative party government. By 2020 we may well be asking: will David Cameron be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

In a related problem, a new colonialism is operating in the UK. There is only one Scottish Conservative MP in the government caucus - one MP speaking for 5.3 million Scots. Also, the UK is now governed by a party with huge ties to provincial England but almost none to inner-city Britain, where some of the biggest problems the nation faces are playing out.

After all that drama, don't worry if the election result gets you down: the Guardian has concocted a wonderfully desperate list of nine things to be cheerful about, including the fact that Nigel Farage didn't manage to win Thanet South (and was photographed next to delighted comedian Al Murray when the result was announced), and the silver lining that the utter plonker George Galloway isn't an MP anymore.

Win or lose, at the end of the day it was a game of two halves

So I still don't know exactly where Reporoa is, but after seeing this well-made New Zealand documentary by Christopher Pryor and Miriam Smith following its rugby team through an entire season in the rural league, I learned that farming looks like bloody hard work, farmers swear like absolute tartars even in front of little children, and by Christ they don't half drink enormous amounts of piss.

Seriously though, this is a marvelous glimpse inside the life of a group of amateurs who play, bond, drink, boast and crack wise without the camera ever seeming to be intrusive. The crisp black and white photography is sumptuously beautiful as it lingers on dawn fields wreathed in mist, the backs running their passing drills under floodlights, or a young buck dejected at a clubroom spurning by a rural femme fatale. The relationship formed by the filmmakers allowed them the closest possible access to their subjects, and the filming never felt intrusive. And by the end, jaded city folk might even come away thinking that farmers are almost human!

Expedition to Cape Palliser

Cape Palliser lighthouse

A month or so ago I took a daytrip to the Wairarapa to catch up with a Carterton pal, and we went on an expedition to the south coast for my first visit to Lake Ferry and Cape Palliser. This was an excellent opportunity to test the new car, but also filled a gap in my knowledge of the Wellington region. And as predicted, it was a grand day out.

After the drive south from Featherston, skirting the eastern shores of Lake Wairarapa but not actually spotting it, the road passes through tiny Pirinoa, home of the area's tiny primary school and a general store, before ending up at the seaside holiday retreat of Lake Ferry itself on the shore of Lake Onoke and overlooking Cook Strait.

There's been a European settlement here for 165 years, with the titular ferry service established early in the region's European settlement to assist the growth of the Wairarapa economy. Back then the Rimutakas were almost impenetrable to travellers, so farmers seeking new pastures in the Wairarapa would take their herds along the south coast trail from Wellington around to the foot of Lake Onoke.

A history of the area records the formation of the ferry service that earned the hamlet its name:

The jury at the inquest into the drowning of Donald and John Drummond when crossing the lake in July 1850, made a strong recommendation that a ferry manned by Europeans be provided at the outlet as well as at the other river crossings in the region. The first applicant was well-known Te Kopi trader Nicholas Carey who in August formally applied 'to establish a ferry at the Lake. Memorialist has a Boat already there and is able at once to give safe conveyance to Passengers'. Henry St Hill in his report said that Carey had been trading to and from the Wairarapa 'for a long time past' and was a steady well-behaved man. He proposed that the licence, which was supported also by Colonel McCleverty and Henry Petre, be granted free for the first year. Although it was approved and issued it is doubtful whether Carey actually took it up for in March 1851, six months later, Purvis Russell wrote at length on behalf of himself and other signatories including his brother Henry, Vallance, Tully, Hume and Riddiford: 'The Settlers in this District have, in order to remove the extremely hazardous & dangerous passage by means of Canoes across the Lake, obtained for the annual payment of twelve pounds the right of ferry & have in pursuance of that object appointed a respectable & competent party in charge of a boat at the Lake but as the charges arising from the ferry are insufficient of themselves to maintain the ferryman we have now humbly to petition that your Excellency shall be pleased to recommend the issue of a Licence in favour of William Ardley the present ferryman...' Domett's minute probably implies the reason for Carey's earlier failure: 'Captain Smith has seen me on the subject and assures me that the arrangement is completely settled with the natives...' The Maoris had doubtless objected to any innovation which did not have their prior blessing. The licence was issued.
- A.G. Bagnall, Wairarapa, an Historical Excursion, Hedley's, Masterton, 1976, p.115.

The current Lake Ferry Hotel is now a rambling, low-rise affair that offers an ideal lunching spot. Inside among a collection of vintage photography of the area you can still see the old ferry tariff board that was once nailed next to the hotel's front door, advertising the rates of travel.

Lake Ferry looking south towards the bar

Next stop after lunch was the journey to Cape Palliser itself, which is nearly 40 kilometres from Lake Ferry along the winding coastal route.

En route to Cape Palliser

There wasn't time for a detour to the spectacular Putangirua Pinnacles inland - next time, definitely - but there was the opportunity to pause for a look at the isolated fishing settlement of Ngawi, to admire the fishing vessels perched up on the stony shore and the hard-working tractors that pull each boat trailer up to safety. I'd never even heard of Ngawi, but it struck me as an interesting place - on the day of our visit it was idyllic but in rough weather it must be highly exposed to the elements, and the locals must have a rugged time of it going out to fish.

Ngawi fishing boat

Further on, the well-populated seal colony just before the Cape Palliser lighthouse is a marvellous opportunity to observe a community onshore. Family groups were perched around the craggy rocks, sunning and snoozing, uttering an occasional gruff bark. Unfortunately our visit was marred by annoyance at a party of young South Africans (perhaps a church party), the males of which clambered over rocks attempting to pat the young seal pups as if they were household pets, despite warning them not to approach closer than 10 metres.

Cape Palliser seal colony

The final stop on the expedition was the candy-striped Cape Palliser lighthouse itself, which sits on an outcrop overlooking the exposed coast at the southernmost point of the North Island. This part of the island features in one of the earliest European visits to New Zealand:

By February 1770 Captain James Cook had been four months in New Zealand waters and before refitting in Queen Charlotte Sound had practically circumnavigated the North Island. His first examination of the Wairarapa coast was incidental to his proving to sceptical officers that Cook Strait was in fact a passage between two islands one of which they had by then nearly encompassed. On February 7th the Endeavour cleared the Sound and stood away to the eastward. Cook saw ahead that the land 'ends in a point and is the southernmost land of Aeheinomouwe which I have named Cape Palliser in honour of my worthy friend Capt Palliser'.
- Bagnall, p.16.

The lighthouse was opened in October 1897 and was operated by a lighthouse keeper until automation in 1986. For a city dweller it really does feel like the end of the earth!

The lighthouse from the west

South coast from the Cape Palliser lighthouse

Ed Byrne

Ed Byrne - Roaring Forties

Hannah Playhouse

Wellington

30 April 2015

Last night at the Hannah Playhouse (formerly Downstage), Irish comedian Ed Byrne harked back to his first gigs in Wellington way back in 1997... at Downstage. No-one was complaining about the proficiency and charm Byrne brings to his well-honed standup routine, even if he joked that he had reached his peak back in the late 20th century. (His famous Alanis Morissette-baiting routine on irony was an early highlight). Now 43, Byrne's material focuses on disgraceful middle-agedness, but without the dreary predictability that might suggest. He still takes a wry glee in juvenile idiocy, such as the sure-fire lady-repellent that is air guitar solos, and offers a deftly-told account of being forced to attend a four hour driving awareness course with a didactic instructor whose po-faced delivery demanded the silliest possible answers, despite the growing annoyance of his fellow classmates. Now with two children, Byrne's recounting of the effects of child-rearing on friendships and social lives also appealed: 'I have all these new friends just because their children know my children, and I don't have time to see the friends I actually like!' Two highlights of the set were clever pieces on his recent hernia (caused by lifting a semi-full compost bin) and the resulting surgery, and a marvelous retelling of a visit he and his wife took to an NHS doctor to discuss a vasectomy, which was full of bleak self-deprecating humour.

Throughout the gig an added dynamic was the presence of two young local women taking turns to perch at the edge of the stage and translate Byrne's material into sign language. They did a sterling job, but at one point as the material got rather 'boisterous' in discussing matters sexual and you had to feel sorry for them. (But at least we now know the sign language for 'erection'). Ever the gentleman, Byrne did pause to muse whether making them translate his comedy was in effect a form of sexual harassment. That, and the banter with a lady audience member who explained that her own hernia was brought on by being 'fat and pregnant', made for a highly appealing night of professional comedy in Wellington. Now all the capital would like, if you don't mind, is for Byrne to convince his mate Dara O'Briain to tour New Zealand too!

See also:

Comedy: Eddie Izzard, 15 February 2015

Comedy: Bill Bailey, 3 November 2014

Comedy: Josie Long, 6 May 2013

Comedy: David O'Doherty, 5 May 2012

Comedy: Ed Byrne / Steve Coogan, 17 May 2009

Elite Dangerous: realising childhood sci-fi dreams

Hunting pirates in my Sidewinder in the Ho Hsi system

As I enter the mid-game of Elite Dangerous, with a ship valued in the (admittedly low) millions, I wonder if the money-making potential at the start of the game should be reduced a little - but only because the early game is so much fun. I really enjoyed ferry missions in my starter Sidewinder, lugging a measly few tons of cargo between closely-packed stars and building up the courage to fight a few space pirates in Sidewinders or Haulers. I know it only costs 32,000Cr but the Sidewinder is so much fun to fly it shouldn't be restricted to basically a learner role. I quickly made enough money to upgrade to an Eagle light fighter and a Hauler, but was sad to leave the little Sidewinder runabout behind. Neither of the next two spacecraft really grabbed me, but probably this was because I was also learning the roles they play as I flew them. I quickly learned that without gimbals on the Eagle's weapons I would have no chance finishing off my weaving and bobbing targets. Turns out I wasn't even trading with the Hauler 'properly'; the Transit van of the spacelanes should be used for rares trading rather than the basic short-range commodity speculation that I used it for. And my amateurish early forays into extracting minerals and metals from gas giant rings returned feeble profits. (But they were still great fun, drilling and scooping fragments to refine into saleable precious and not-so-precious chunks).

Skipping the Adder trader for the time being, once I had improved my dogfighting skills I moved on to a Viper interceptor, and enjoyed hunting for bounties at the Nav Beacons near the bursting radiance of a dozen nameless suns. Then it was time for the favourite ship of many pilots, the classic Cobra Mk.III multi-role vessel, otherwise known as Elite Dangerous' equivalent of the Millennium Falcon. No doubt it could also do the Kessel run in less than 12 parsecs. With this and a bit of help from the Elite Rare Trader website I was able to do my first rare goods trading routes, reliving the brand awareness from the original game - a spot of Leestian Evil Juice with your bar snacks, sir? It's a great feeling to be able to fling the Cobra into a spot of bounty hunting en route to a trading port, and then carry straight on to pick up the next rares cargo. And once I sorted out how to do Federal Navy rank progression missions, a rank of Midshipman earned me a Sol permit and the chance to visit the home of humanity on Terra and the capital of the Federation on Old Mars.

Visiting Terra in my Cobra Mk.III

Transporting the rare goods of far-flung systems like Ochoeng, Vanayequi and Aegaeon built my bank balance to a level where I could investigate one further aspect of gameplay - exploring the wide, trackless realms of the galaxy to chart new systems and worlds. Once I could afford the Advanced System Scanner I kitted out an Adder for what I thought was a short foray - as close to the 1000 light year course plotting range as possible. I've no idea whether I was heading spinwards or trailing, and the Adder could only manage a jump range of 24 light years, so it was a lengthy outward journey of more than 40 jumps. My destination was the prominent type-A0 star HD 17723, which was sure to have been visited before by other explorers. As I ventured further from inhabited space I began to encounter more and more systems that had never been scanned by other (human) pilots. It's a thrill to be able to tag your commander's name to a star or planet for ever more - not to mention the money from Universal Cartographics if you manage to bring the data back to civilisation. My trusty explorer Adder, Eravate 7781, sniffed out three impressive new water worlds en route, and dozens of high metal content planets, gas giants and icy moons. Taking a different route back to avoid traversing old ground, the Adder pointed its nose towards HIP 117746 and then onwards to the first Federation station that cropped up on the fringes of inhabited space: Jones Colony in the Privir system. How good it felt to be back amongst the activity and busyness of civilised space! And the 2.1MCr reward for my scanning data didn't hurt, either.

The Adder 'Eravate 7781' explores another gas giant's rings

Now I've sold both the Adder and the Cobra to outfit a mean fighting machine: a Vulture heavy fighter. Its massive twin pulse lasers have been plied in service hunting bounties in the Carener system, and last night moved to a new base at Zhen Dock in the Xihe system. From there the Vulture tested the waters in the cryptically-named nearby system of Huh, fighting in the civil war for corporate forces against a dictator faction. Maybe the next stop will be purchasing an Asp Explorer and heading back out into the galaxy on a voyage of discovery. Or maybe an adventure into Imperial space is called for. Either way, there's 400 billion stars out there to visit and only one lifetime to do it in. Fly safe, Commanders - and be happy that the game you always wanted to play when you were a kid has finally been made.

Lurking amongst the rocks, the Vulture awaits its prey

Big, biggest, colossalest

Siobhan Sharpe (Jessica Hynes) from the BBC sitcom W1A: 'So what we're talking about here is major brand surgery ... so listen up - we're sitting on three letters here guys, that's like, duh, the raccoon is already in the trash can here guys, and all you gotta do is nail that lid shut. And how we do that is from like June 2015 whatever, we seed the hashtag 'BBC', but it's gonna stand for Big, Biggest, Colossalest. So it's like the biggest name you can have for anything. In the world, ever. M'kay?'